Yesterday, CNBC had a front page blog post claiming an Obama victory would cut the price of oil $40 a barrel. No substantive model or explanation was offered. Today, they feature a post by a Kudlowite claiming that the market is – get this – tumbling because of Obama’s anticipated victory. This gentleman also claims that the market turmoil is not tied to the credit crunch and that there is no recession.

As “evidence,” he offers the following chart:

I don’t know about you, but my optometrist doesn’t offer lenses that give me the mutant power to interpret busy images with insightful certainty or to directly communicate with electronic databases through the pores of my skin. All I see is are a bunch of lines going up and down – sometimes at the same time, sometimes not. Maybe this guy is secretly Forge.

But since he is probably not, I took it upon myself to actually see if daily shifts in McCain’s Intrade share value track with changes in the Dow Jones. I looked at the the past year from today’s market close. I didn’t choose the DJI – the Forge wannabe did – I would have gone S&P, but whatever. When we actually run this, we find out that the market doesn’t seem to care whatsoever about how McCain is doing on Intrade. It doesn’t wake up to trade depending on whether McCain is up or down. He’s no oil futures. He’s just noise.